Mr Long predicted ticket prices would fluctuate over the next year until the airlines settle more firmly on their post-pandemic operations.
“Prices will fluctuate maybe 10 per cent to 15 per cent from where they are today, and that will be case for the next year,” he said.
“But as things pick up and low-cost carriers have more certainty over demand, I think we will see things return to some normality around mid-2023.”
‘Pendulum will swing’
Mr Long said destinations such as Fiji were already seeing capacity close to pre-pandemic levels and, as a result, prices were normalising. But Virgin Australia is suspending its flights to Fiji between February and April because of staff shortages and subdued demand.
Flight Centre boss Graham Turner said capacity was low because most of the appetite for travel was from people visiting friends and family after long periods of separation during COVID-19.
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He said this segment was largely prepared to pay the higher price tag.
But he was also far more optimistic about when airfares would start to fall to pre-pandemic levels.
“It will be pretty fluid by the next six months, but I think the pendulum will swing back soon afterwards and there will be more seats than demand,” Mr Turner said.
He said the best news for travellers was Britain’s decision to drop all testing requirements for inbound travellers from next month, although airfare relief may have to wait until Australia entices more tourists, which would force airlines to add more capacity.
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Only fully vaccinated Australian citizens, permanent residents, eligible visa holders and their relatives can now enter without a travel exemption.
There are exemptions for nations with a travel bubble arrangement such as Singapore, seasonal workers and international students.
Travellers must also test negative for COVID-19 three days before arrival.
“That needs to change, and I think it will change in the next few weeks so foreigners are allowed into Australia,” Mr Turner said.
